For the first time since their 2015 expansion season, NYCFC failed to qualify for the playoffs.
It was a stop-start, frustrating season for the Pigeons dating back to preseason. Their winter transfer business came late, with James Sands and Santi Rodriguez returning after NYCFC had already played their first league game. The squad didn’t have a senior center forward until the summer. They seemed to be scrambling all season long and couldn’t quite recover to reach the playoff line.
Six of the starters at MLS Cup 2021 were gone by season’s end (seven with Maxi Moralez leaving before coming back and suffering a torn ACL). It ended up being a transition year for NYCFC, but further significant changes are likely still to come.
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State of the roster
Head coach: Nick Cushing (since 2022)
Chief soccer officer: David Lee (CSO since 2019)
The good
The core of NYCFC’s roster is very strong around Sands, Rodriguez and Keaton Parks. That nucleus (and midfield trio, when Rodriguez is deployed as a No. 10 instead of winger) is a great starting point.
Add left back Braian Cufre, who had a strong debut season, to that group and that’s four no-doubt-about-it building blocks. Center back Birk Risa is likely to be one too, though he just joined over the summer. NYCFC has two goalkeepers challenging for the starting spot, so add one (or both) of Matt Freese and Luis Barraza to that mix.
There’s plenty more talent at value — like Julian Fernandez, Richie Ledezma (on loan), Monsef Bakrar, Tayvon Gray — that makes this a solid squad. Fernandez in particular looks the most likely to become a legitimate difference-maker in this league.
It’s just been a season in flux with so many outgoing from the winter (11, including Moralez who returned and then got injured) through summer (five more, including Taty Castellanos, though no one was under any illusions that he would actually be returning).
The bad
Why did it take so long for this team to sign a true No. 9? What would this season have looked like if Bakrar was signed in January? What would this season have looked like if more assets were pushed into the No. 9 position? Are we sure Bakrar is the long-term answer?
And let’s just add one more question to the pile: What in the hell happened to Talles Magno?
When playing as a left winger before Castellanos departed last summer, Magno was seen as being among the best in the league. One sporting director from another MLS club told The Athletic that Magno could easily become a UEFA Champions League-level winger. He looked out of sorts at center forward, but even after returning to his preferred left wing, he’s been off. Since Castellanos’ last game (July 17, 2022), Magno has just six goals and four assists in 44 MLS matches.
He had only four goals and two assists in 30 appearances this year. That’s not enough for a player signed for a fee that could rise to $12 million with add-ons. Magno’s lack of production was exacerbated by the fact that NYCFC used one of their DP spots on center back Thiago Martins.
DP center backs can be tricky. I’m not of the binary opinion that going that route is inherently bad, but for any team spending a DP spot on a center back, it has to work out like Walker Zimmerman. Thiago has not been at that level. Also the opportunity cost of this team (and scouting network) using a DP spot on a center back rather than taking about swing on a young South American isn’t great.
What could change
Head coach Nick Cushing’s seat has been hot seemingly since he took over on an interim basis during the 2022 season before earning the permanent job last winter.
NYCFC (and City Football Group) will have to decide if Magno needs a change of scenery this winter. If so, that would open another DP spot. What about Thiago?
Both goalkeepers have club options for 2024. High-earning midfielder Alfredo Morales has a club option for next year, as well. Ledezma is on loan from PSV, but could be a candidate for a permanent deal (whether for NYCFC or another MLS club like Real Salt Lake, who has his discovery rights again next year). Andres Perea is on loan from the Philadelphia Union and that deal expires this winter, too.
The infrastructure
The City Football Group global scouting network has boosted NYCFC’s recruitment to the point where any time they sign an unknown international player, they have more than earned the benefit of the doubt to assume it’ll be a good signing. Not every signing works, but NYCFC has many more hits than misses.
Oh, hey, a new stadium is coming in 2027!
Offseason priorities
Does Cushing return?
Let’s take a look at the numbers.
The defense for Cushing is all the transfers impacting any chance at continuity or momentum, as this turned out to be a transition year from the 2021 MLS Cup-winning team to a new era. More importantly, probably, is that they didn’t have a center forward until the summer (and sold leading scorer Pereira midseason, as well).
Still, this team had a ton of talent at its disposal. Nine wins in 34 games does not reflect that.
A reliable, 15-goal-per-season scorer
NYCFC may believe it’s Bakrar and they may not be wrong, if so. Bakrar scored three goals in 10 MLS games but his underlying, non-penalty xG number was higher (5.2 xG in 754 minutes). If he has positive regression to the mean, that could be 15 goals in 2,250 minutes.
Either way, another center forward option (or starter) is necessary. They cannot go into the season with only the 22-year-old Bakrar. The secondary option cannot be Magno or Rodriguez as a false nine again. There’s enough data to show that that didn’t work.
In a perfect world, NYCFC would manufacture a DP spot open to make it happen. Or at least someone in the max-TAM range (like LAFC’s deal to sign Chicho Arango in 2022. Intra-league examples include Vancouver’s Brian White and San Jose’s Jeremy Ebobisse).
Build around the midfield nucleus
Sands, Parks and Rodriguez are an elite midfield trio. And Sands has taken on more of a leadership role, while Parks is one of the longest-serving players in the team. They need to set the culture. Rodriguez needs to be the creator-in-chief to drive the attack game in and game out.
All of that is possible, if not probable. Adding another attacking talent (or a revival from Magno) will help, too.
(Photo by Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)