MLS playoffs picks: Explaining the new format, and who will win MLS Cup

After nine months, 986 games, 1359 goals scored, a domestic cup and a first-of-its-kind Leagues Cup, we are finally at the business end of the MLS season: the playoffs, culminating with MLS Cup. 

While Inter Miami and Lionel Messi are jetting off to China to play post-season friendlies, 18 of the league’s 29 teams are gearing up for the month-and-a-half-long playoff period, beginning on Wednesday and Thursday, where seeds eight and nine in both conferences will play a one-off match to determine who will face the top seed of their conference in the first round of the playoffs.

The playoff format:

The playoffs underwent a revamp this season, with two one-off wild card games followed by a best-of-three series in the playoffs’ first round proper. Every game in the first round must have a winner and will be hosted in a home-away-home format, giving the higher-seeded side up to two chances to get a win in front of their own fans. The play-in and first-round games will go straight to penalty kicks if the score is tied after regulation.

If a team makes it beyond the first round, the conference semifinals await, which will be a traditional single-game elimination match hosted by the higher seed. These games will have two 15-minute periods of extra time if the score is tied at the end of regulation, with penalties used as a tiebreaker if things are still level after extra time. This format will continue for the conference finals and the MLS Cup final, scheduled for December 9, hosted by whichever participating team accrued more points during the regular season.

The playoffs are a safe bet to be exciting, dramatic and unpredictable, but The Athletic’s soccer staff (Tom Bogert, Elias Burke, Felipe Cardenas, Pablo Maurer, Jeff Rueter, and Paul Tenorio) have given it our best shot at picking the winners.

Play-in round

No teams left the season’s final day with more positive momentum than the Red Bulls and Sporting KC. Be it by late penalty kick (Red Bulls) or a dominant home performance (Kansas City), the two sides earned hosting rights in galvanizing fashion. Charlotte FC’s presence in the play-in round already marks a successful second MLS season, while San Jose battled inconsistency but has plenty to build off of in 2024 and beyond under head coach Luchi Gonzalez. – Jeff Rueter

First round

St. Louis City — picked by many (including most of us!) to finish dead last in the West this year — will likely continue its Cinderella run. The Houston Dynamo, long a conference doormat, has proven to be one of the West’s most entertaining teams all year. Fresh off capturing the U.S. Open Cup and very much in form, they feel like a safe bet to advance. – Pablo Maurer

St. Louis stunned MLS by finishing atop the Western Conference, and yet for some reason I can’t shake the feeling that they’re primed for an upset in the playoffs. They beat SKC in two of the three match-ups this season by a combined score of 8-1, and yet I’m still making this upset pick. – Paul Tenorio

Even though they could be without them for Game 1, I think Atlanta is going to get big-game performances from its big-game players, striker Giorgos Giakoumakis and midfielder Thiago Almada, in games two and three to beat one of the best teams in MLS. Cincinnati and the Red Bulls both like to press high, which could make for an entertaining series, but I like Cincy to take it. – Paul Tenorio

I’m picking a lot of boring favorites, I know, I get it, but these really do seem to be the most sensible choices. Nashville would be a sexier upset pick if they hadn’t been shut out in four of their last five games. – Tom Bogert

I am once again asking to move the best-of-three round to the conference semifinals. On paper, these are not the strongest matchups to use as a showcase of the league’s ability. For example, the two teams in the coldest form among the entire 18-team field are Philadelphia and New England, both on 1.0 points per game over their last seven games. Ideally, you’d move it to the next round for the real magic to take place among in-form heavyweights. Chalk plays out in a forgiving best-of-three format here. – Jeff Rueter

Conference semifinals

I think an LAFC vs. Seattle matchup could be really fun and one of the more difficult games to predict. – Paul Tenorio

The Dynamo, as its captain Hector Herrera told me earlier this year, is a difficult team to unlock because of their lack of a consistent style, which makes them adaptable to all sorts of different situations. That will help them deal with playing away at St. Louis, as a majority of us are predicting them to. – Pablo Maurer

It’s all coming up Ohio! – Tom Bogert

The prospect of Cincinnati and Philadelphia meeting is enticing. In those two excellent teams you have two of the most loyal fanbases in the league and two of the league’s standout tacticians and motivators on the sideline in Philadelphia’s Jim Curtin and Cincy’s Pat Noonan. The links between the two sides make it all the more dramatic – Noonan was previously an assistant under Curtin and Cincinnati general manager Chris Albright was the Union’s technical director before both left to lead a turnaround in Ohio. Philly will certainly have a shot here, but it’s hard to bet against MLS MVP candidate Luciano Acosta, USMNT striker Brandon Vasquez, Noonan and the rest of the Queen City bunch. 

Orlando vs. Columbus would arguably be the game of the postseason, with two of the league’s most in-form and entertaining sides. However, Orlando’s ability to capitalize on the break should be effective well against Columbus’ at-times unsettled defensive structure, giving them an edge in what could be an instant classic. – Pablo Maurer

Big Duncan McGuire has been a revelation at striker in Orlando and I think they’re primed for a playoff run. A game against Atlanta at this stage would rekindle what had been an intense rivalry between the sides, and that’s always fun to watch.  – Paul Tenorio

Conference finals

Are the Seattle Sounders the most entertaining team in the league? Not by a longshot. But they may be the most well-drilled thanks to head coach Brian Schmetzer, one of the most pragmatic coaches in MLS. – Pablo Maurer

Seattle still feels inevitable, doesn’t it? After a strong opening quarter, the Sounders sleepwalked through much of the regular season and felt a bit stale. But now they’re the hottest team in the West (1.9 points per game over their last seven) and in prime position to make a late run in the final MLS season for Uruguayan playmaker Nicolas Lodeiro, who announced he would be leaving the club after this season. – Jeff Rueter

The Crew is this year’s equivalent of “every musician’s favorite band,” coached by former Montreal Impact boss Wilfried Nancy. In a league full of forgettable teams, the Crew are rarely dreary to watch (which is why they topped our watchability rankings).

Houston has outperformed every expectation in 2023, but I can’t see them making MLS Cup.  – Pablo Maurer

MLS Cup

LAFC won the Supporters’ Shield/MLS Cup double last year, the first in MLS since Toronto FC did it in 2017. They have the league’s top goalscorer in Dénis Bouanga, playoff experience from last year, and a solid coach in Steve Cherundolo. Cincy has the chops to do it as well. Like all other championship runs, though, it’ll take a little bit of luck. – Tom Bogert

A nod to the team that’s been the best in the league this season, FC Cincy will get a chance to complete its multi-year turnaround, going from worst to first. But I think LAFC will play spoiler to one of the best stories in MLS this season and get a win on the road in Cincy. – Paul Tenorio

(Top photos: Getty Images)